The MLS Draft is More Important Than Ever

12/19/2024

Another MLS draft is upon us, bringing back fiery debates about whether there is still any value in the system or if it is a complete and utter waste of time. The franchises themselves have long signaled where they stand in that argument. For one, the growing trend of GMs declining to select a player prompted several changes, such as making sophomores eligible. But while that had some success with last year's draft standing as the first in nine years where every pick was used, the signs of waning interest are still there, as highlighted by the Philadelphia Union choosing to trade all but one of their nine draft picks over the next three years.

Not only do I believe there is adequate quality in college soccer, but I will go as far as to say the draft should be a core part of talent acquisition for 95% of MLS teams.

Of course, franchises like LA Galaxy and Inter Miami, with the budget and reach to acquire prospects from across the globe, may not need to focus on the draft. I will even defend the Philadelphia Union. As I wrote in the past, they arguably have one of the best academies in the world and have earned the right to lean into that. But for the rest of the league, there is no excuse not to milk college soccer for what it is worth.

For example, say an MLS team invested $100k yearly into exclusively scouting college soccer, a thorough year-round assessment, not the half-baked process most teams employ now where they wait until the College Cup or the MLS Showcase to identify the same obvious talents everyone else sees. This investment could mean targeting positions of need, players who fit their tactical model, prospects with one percentile athleticism, or developing a robust database of overlooked gems who flew under the radar due to poor team results. With three draft picks a year over five years, that franchise could hit on just one of those 15 selections, selling the player overseas for a modest $5 million fee, recouping a $4.5 million profit. That money can further strengthen the roster, bolster the academy, reinvest in the draft, and so on.

The math behind pouring a significant investment into scouting for the draft makes way too much sense to not give it the old college try. Full pun intended.

Here are some instances of teams using the draft to its full financial potential over the last five years.

  • Moise Bombito, New Hampshire - Drafted by Colorado Rapids in 2022, later sold to OGC Nice for $10.7 million.

  • Daryl Dike, Virginia - Drafted by Orlando City in 2020, later sold to West Brom for $9.5 million.

  • Alistair Johnston, Wake Forest - Drafted by Nashville in 2020, later traded, then sold to Celtic for $6.2 million.

  • Tajon Buchanan, Syracuse - Drafted by New England Revolution in 2019, later sold to Club Brugge for $7 million.

That is not even considering the current stars who came through the college route and could be sold at any point for a large payday, or a player like Kyle Heibert, undrafted in 2021, later signed by St. Louis City SC and called up to the Canadian national team. According to transfermarket.com, three of the five highest-valued American players in the MLS came through college soccer (Miles Robinson, Duncan McGuire, Jordan Morris).

If you need more convincing beyond the financial benefits, look at the New York Red Bulls team that just reached the MLS final. Sean Nealis, who scored, was drafted by the Red Bulls in 2019 after a stellar career with Hofstra. One of his partners in the back three was Dylan Nealis, his younger brother, drafted by Inter Miami out of Georgetown in 2020. The LA Galaxy goalkeeper that Nealis beat was John McCarthy, who went undrafted in 2013 after a stellar four-year career with the La Salle Explorers.

Even star-studded Inter Miami relied on collegiate talent this last season, with 2024 draft picks Yannick Bright, Leo Afonso, and Pep Casas all receiving MLS time. Bright ended up playing nearly half of all available minutes, while Alfonso scored twice, one of which was a last-minute game-winner assisted by Bright against the Philadelphia Union.

Ignore your negative preconceived notions about the level of play in college soccer. There are plenty of quality prospects across the country who have owned their crafts in varying tactical styles, whether it be the ball-dominance of a Marshall, the physically punishing set-up of Vermont, or the free-flowing counter-pressing attack of Dayton.

And with 212 teams and 6,000+ players at the Division 1 level alone, there is no way to analyze the draft process without concluding that it is an absolute goldmine and the failure to properly invest in it borders on malpractice. These are free assets that can be flipped for hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions, and some franchises elect to treat them as a burden.

With proper investment in the financial and scouting resources needed to capitalize on college soccer, the MLS draft could be the hidden gem to take your favorite franchise to the next level.